Let he who is without win cast the first moan: Football betting and the gaming industry, by Professor Mark Griffiths

Not everyone in Britain is unhappy that the England team has been knocked out of the World Cup (and no, I’m not talking about Scotland supporters). England’s untimely exit in South Africa has saved British bookmakers from an estimated payout of over £50m. In fact, David Williams of Ladbrokes went as far as saying that if England had won the World Cup it would have been “the darkest day in history for the betting industry.”

In an earlier blog (Bored games: The case of gambling and football), I argued that football and gambling are inextricably linked. Psychologists claim that gamblers are attracted to betting on football because they love competitiveness. Sociologists have speculated that human instinctual expressive needs, such as competition, can be temporarily satisfied when engaging in gambling activities. The US sociologist Erving Goffman developed what he called the ‘deprivation-compensation’ theory to explain the relationship between gambling and competitiveness. He suggested that the stability of modern society no longer created situations where competitive instincts are tested. Therefore, gambling is an artificial, self-imposed situation of instability that can be instrumental in creating an opportunity to test competitive capabilities.

One of the problems for regular sports gamblers is that they can sometimes experience what we psychologists call an ‘illusion of control’. Put simply, those who bet on football matches think they have more chance of winning than they actually do. Many sports gamblers passionately believe their betting is skill-based, and offer very specific explanations when they fail to win. These beliefs have been tested experimentally by US psychologist Thomas Gilovich in a study of the biased evaluations in sports gambling behaviour. In three studies using people who bet on football games, Gilovich demonstrated that gamblers transformed their losses into ‘near wins’. What’s more, my own research has shown that gamblers not only feel psychologically and physiologically rewarded when they win, but also when they nearly win.

Gilovich also showed that gamblers pinpoint random or ‘fluke’ events that contributed to a loss but were unaffected by identical events that contributed to a win. I’m sure you can all think of instances like this when watching a football match. When your team loses, it’s not uncommon to berate the referee for a dodgy penalty decision or deride the linesman because he failed to spot an offside (or that Frank Lampard did actually score against Germany).

If you placed a bet on England to beat Germany, you may have blamed England’s loss on one particular event (such as the disallowed Lampard goal). Had England won with a dodgy refereeing decision going England’s way, you would have probably rationalised it and convinced yourself that England would have won anyway because of their superior playing ability and skill. (I know this sounds delusional under the circumstances but it’s not uncommon among hard-core gamblers who lose). Gilovich also reported that gamblers spent more time discussing their losses and discounting them. For example, after a loss, a lot of time may be spent analysing a small incident of a few seconds duration (e.g., Tevez’s offside goal against Mexico) even though the game lasted 90 minutes. What’s more, we make ourselves feel better by blaming the loss on something or someone external (such as a single poor refereeing decision).

Finally, it’s worth noting that one of the questions that I get asked most often is why people gamble regularly if in the long run they tend to lose? Well, you have to remember that gamblers don’t consistently lose, they consistently nearly win which as I highlighted above is both physiologically and psychologically rewarding! No wonder the betting industry loves sports gamblers.

Professor Mark Griffiths, psychologist, Nottingham Trent University

To speak to Professor Griffiths, call the University Press Office directly on 0115 848 8782 or email worldcup@ntu.ac.uk

[To view Nottingham Trent University’s team of World Cup experts go to www.ntu.ac.uk/worldcup]

The Morning After: England vs Germany, by Athalie Redwood Brown

Sadly England ended their World Cup bid yesterday afternoon as their old rivals Germany showed why they are one of the best teams in the World.

England weren’t entirely outclassed, showing the occasional moment of genius, but credit has to go to the young German side, displaying a pace that England just couldn’t cope with. The game perhaps started slower than the media hype and old rivalry had suggested but it didn’t take long to get going with a German goal in the 20th minute.

England never really seemed like they could match the class of the German side as one after another the English defensive line was broken by the German opposition. Although England had the high end of the possession in the first half, the German’s just kept coming and England rarely seemed confident, especially in their defending third.

Going into half time a goal down can sometimes give the losing team an advantage with the opportunity to re-gather themselves and reflect; but with a late first half goal disallowed, some players left the field frustrated and disillusioned; a clear goal, which may well have changed the outcome of the game.

All credit due to the experienced side, they came out with their heads held high and looked strong and determined from the half time whistle.  However, there were peaks and troughs in terms of momentum and intensity of play as it seemed like the ball was running from one attack to the other at either ends of the pitch.

Nothing really seemed to go England’s way in the second half; a few guilt ridden free kicks from the referee, but the number of line breaks and the pace of the attacking Germans ran rings around the defence who never really seemed in sync with one another.

As a whole, England played below par, and we must ask ourselves why? Rooney seemed tired and heavy, his imagination and his pace seemed forced and not free flowing. Some of the defence looked like they were running through glue and it would be fair to question just how well prepared they had been for this game, and ultimately the tournament.

In comparison, Germany seemed on top of their game, chasing, closing down and making the breaks at every opportunity.  We are quick to jump on the team for not playing with the passion and commitment we see in the domestic games, but we have to remember the standard of game and the intensity at international level is not the same. Our players should be able to cope with this style of play, but it’s clear that they’re doing something wrong.

“Underperformance” is clearly the buzz word of this world cup for the England squad, but what can we learn from this? England clearly needs to come together sooner as a team before major championships and work towards playing as a unit and supporting each other. We have arguably the best domestic league in the world – in which the majority of our national team play – but maybe this campaign has supported the notion that a string of world class players cannot always produce a world class team, without huge investments in the development of unity, spirit and cohesion.

Athalie Redwood-Brown, Senior Lecturer in Performance Analysis of Sport, Nottingham Trent University

To speak to Athalie, call the University Press Office directly on 0115 848 8785 or email worldcup@ntu.ac.uk

[To view Nottingham Trent University’s team of World Cup experts go to www.ntu.ac.uk/worldcup]

How to handle England World Cup defeat misery, by Professor Mark Griffiths

So England have been knocked out of the World Cup. You feel gutted, miserable and apathetic. So what can you do?

1. Firstly, remember we have been here many times before, and your depression following the England defeat will be short-lived. Remember when Germany beat us on penalties in the 1990 semi-final? Being knocked out by Argentina (1998) and Brazil (2002)? Going out to Portugal on penalties in 2006? All devastating defeats but we got over them pretty quickly.
2. You also have to rationalise your thoughts. If you thought England played badly, then say to yourself “They deserve to go out”. If you thought they played well but still got knocked out, say “They played a better team who may well go on to win the World Cup”. If they went out unjustly, for example, because of a poor refereeing decision or freak incident (e.g., Diego Maradona’s ‘Hand of God’) in 1986, console yourself in the knowledge that tens of millions of others will also have seen it and agree that it wasn’t fair.
3. Keep telling yourself that England did brilliantly in qualifying (remaining unbeaten). They beat off a number of world-class teams (like Croatia) to even qualify and there’s nothing bad about losing to the world’s best teams.
4. Don’t wallow in your misery. Think about the things you feel good about. You need to channel your frustration into healthy pursuits such as exercise or going out with friends, rather than taking it out on your nearest and dearest.
5. Put things into perspective. There are many things that are much worse than England losing – family bereavement, divorce, chronic poor health, exam failure, etc. England losing is not the end of the world!
6. Remember you had absolutely no control over England losing. Your happiness should not be dictated by things you cannot possibly control. Take pride in your work, your friends, your family, and your own achievements.
7. Console yourself in other English sports. The English cricket team are the new T20 World Cup champions and we won the last Ashes series. We have provided the last two World Formula 1 race champions, have the word’s best cycling team, a good spattering of World boxing champions, and a world class tennis player.
8. Use laughter – it really can be the best medicine. Watch something light on television or watch one of your favourite DVDs. Laughter helps your body create mood-enhancing chemicals.
9. Use ‘distractor tasks’ to take your mind off the pain of England losing. Play a video game, listen to your favourite CDs, do a cryptic crossword – or even go and have sex. Anything that stops you thinking about the final score will do you good.
10. Boycott Germany goods for a month. Only joking (but it might make you feel a little better in the short term)!

Professor Mark Griffiths, psychologist, Nottingham Trent University

To speak to Mark, call the University Press Office directly on 0115 848 8785 or email worldcup@ntu.ac.uk

[To view Nottingham Trent University’s team of World Cup experts go to www.ntu.ac.uk/worldcup]

The loyal family: Why do we stick with our team? By Professor Mark Griffiths

Why are we so loyal to our national and club football teams? Whatever the results, we tend to support them week in week out all year round. They can cause us misery and heartache and yet still we support them. As a Sunderland fan, I know this only too well!

It has been argued by academics working in the marketing field that commercial organisations would love to have the kind of brand loyalty shown by football fans – something that Ken Parker and Trish Stuart argued in their 1997 award winning paper ‘The ‘West Ham Syndrome’ published in the Journal of the Market Research Society (I’m not making this up, honest!).

Parker and Stuart, working at the time of the study for the company Discovery Research, surveyed 2000 adults and also carried out some focus group interviews with football fans (including some ardent West Ham United supporters). They found that 58% of males had made a commitment to their club team by the age of 11 years. (I just happen to be one of those men, having supported Sunderland from the age of 7 after watching them beat Leeds in the 1973 FA Cup Final). More than half of children whose parents supported a team went on to support the same one, while a third of all fans still followed their local team.

Marketeers would love to be able to take the seemingly unstinted loyalty of football fans and somehow transfer that loyalty to the products they are trying to sell. For instance, the brand of coffee we buy tends to governed by many factors such as television advertising, the taste, the price, the packaging, etc. If we come across coffee that (for whatever reason) is better (cheaper, tastes better, etc.), we automatically switch our ‘allegiance’ to another brand of coffee. Parker and Stuart argued that wherever West Ham finish in the league, Hammers fans would not desert their club and/or switch to another club. So what’s the difference between football clubs as a brand and other commercial products as a brand? Maybe it’s passion and the fact that football can be such an emotional experience for the diehard fan.

Some working in the advertising industry claim many people working in marketing lack passion in their product. Apparently there are other products (such as cars) that consumers get very passionate about that means they repeatedly buy a particular make of car despite any acknowledged faults. However, one huge fault can damage a brand’s reputation almost overnight, as Toyota is only too aware. The good news for Toyota is that one of the most interesting things about research on the ‘West Ham Syndrome’ is that it can help to explain why leading brands are able to bounce back from PR disasters in similar ways to football clubs come back from being relegated to a lower division.

However, are football fans really as loyal as most of us assume? A paper by Alan Tapp at the University of the West of England examined the loyalty of football fans (Journal of Database Marketing and Customer Strategy Management, 2004) and wondered what it is about football clubs as a brand that makes them so successful – especially as the ‘product’ is so inconsistent and unpredictable? (‘Inconsistent’ and ‘unpredictable are certainly words I would associate with the England team and the England players!). Parker and Stuart claimed that levels of loyalty were “only marginally affected” by West Ham’s fortunes”. However, Alan Tapp says this is completely untrue. He cites analysis of football attendance figures since 1945 to show that crowd sizes are related to a team’s position in the league, and that teams lose support when they are doing poorly.

Despite the fact that crowd attendance is linked to how well a football club is doing, it’s still probably true to say that football fans are still more loyal to their club than they are to most other products. All this goes to show is that most of us will continue to love England, warts and all.

Professor Mark Griffiths, psychologist, Nottingham Trent University

To speak to Mark, call the University Press Office directly on 0115 848 8785 or email worldcup@ntu.ac.uk

[To view Nottingham Trent University’s team of World Cup experts go to www.ntu.ac.uk/worldcup]

The Morning After: England vs Slovenia, by Athalie Redwood Brown

It was great to see an England team who played with spirit and passion yesterday. As they grew in confidence, they seemed to become more united in their mission to reach the final sixteen. Their unity and imagination on the ball was a far cry from the uninspiring and frustrated side that played against Slovenia. Another new line-up could have put Capello in the firing line, and somewhat open to comments of “peer pressure” that had surrounded team selection earlier in the week; but the strong-minded manager made it clear who was in charge.

The lack of fluency in midfield that had been seen against Algeria seemed a thing of the past and the team kept hold of the ball and rarely looked in trouble as the Slovenians pressed hard.  Rooney again failed to find his “spark” up front, but seemed more at home with Defoe by his side.  The injection of Defoe’s imagination and pace might have been just what England needed up front.

There was some criticism after the Algeria game of Capello and his strict “head master” like leadership; producing a team on the pitch that were “playing scared”. Although there were some shaky moments in the first few minutes of the game,  as the side grew in confidence the ball seemed to flow more readily around the pitch, especially from the midfield to the strikers. The heads that had gone down so easily in the previous game seemed lifted as the dedicated fan base showed their support for the side.  A team that had struggled to dominate and close down against Algeria were now showing the discipline and spirit of a squad that did not want to end their World Cup bid.

A lack of commitment was proposed as the reason for the under-performance in previous games, but there is a fine line between lack of commitment and anxiety. The World Cup finals is a place for taking chances and raising your game.  Although England gave us a glimpse of what they can do against Slovenia, Germany will be coming away from some strong performances.  England have always seemed to raise their game against stronger sides, and one could say coming through the dark times over the last week will make them stronger, and more confident that they can unite to play like champions.

One thing is for certain, the next game will be challenge.  The World Cup starts now!  Forget the groups, each game needs passion and spirit. There was a real buzz around the stadium as the final whistle blew last night, let’s hope that Capello and his team can bottle this momentum to bring the intensity and passion of their game to the Germans.

Athalie Redwood-Brown, Senior Lecturer in Performance Analysis of Sport, Nottingham Trent University

To speak to Athalie, call the University Press Office directly on 0115 848 8785 or email worldcup@ntu.ac.uk

[To view Nottingham Trent University’s team of World Cup experts go to www.ntu.ac.uk/worldcup]

Altitude versus attitude: The highs and lows of football, by Professor Mark Griffiths

Is playing at altitude affecting the England team?

In an earlier blog, Bryan Saunders, one of my NTU colleagues, examined the issue of how the altitude in South Africa might affect the performance of the English team. Following England’s lacklustre and dismal performance against Algeria, plenty of excuses and reasons were given for the poor performance, although (to my knowledge), altitude wasn’t one of them. But what does the research evidence actually say? Can attitude triumph over altitude?

It has long been known that altitude affects sporting performance although it was only very recently (2007) that the Federation of International Football Associations (FIFA), banned international matches from being played at more than 2500 metres above sea level. Furthermore, because of the effects of acute exposure to altitude on performance, FIFA’s own Sport Medicine Commission recommends that football matches above 3000 metres should only be played after an acclimatisation period of 10 days.

In 2007, the British Medical Journal published a really interesting paper [Altitude and athletic performance: statistical analysis using football results] by Patrick McSharry of the University of Oxford. McSharry’s study attempted to quantify the effect of altitude on the national South American football teams by statistically analysing the large FIFA database of 1460 international football matches spanning over 100 years (from 1900 to 2004) of 10 countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela). McSharry claimed that no previous study had ever examined (or quantified) the direct link between altitude and international football performance. The study examined four specific variables: (i) the probability of a win, (ii) the number of goals scored, (iii) the number of goals conceded, and (iv) the altitude difference between the home venue of a specific team and that of the opposition. What is unique about this statistical study is that unlike most other altitude studies, it wasn’t susceptible to the effects of any particular individual or team.

Looking at all these variables, the study very clearly showed that altitude had a very (statistically) significant negative impact on the physiological performance of soccer teams. McSharry highlighted that ‘low altitude teams’ (LATs) underperformed when playing against high altitude teams (HATs) in South America. More specifically, the analysis revealed that HATs scored more goals and conceded fewer goals as altitude increased. HATs also had a greater probability of winning. McSharry concluded that altitude provides a significant advantage for HATs when playing international football games at both low and high altitudes. He also concluded that LATs are sufficiently unable to acclimatise to high altitude leading to a reduction in physiological performance. Based on his findings, McSharry believes that when it comes to team selection, careful thought and preparation are needed as physiological performance clearly doesn’t protect against the effect of altitude.

However, as McSharry acknowledges, the weakness of his study is the difficulty in controlling for other factors that influence football outcome, such as the quality of the training, the manager, team spirit and team attitude. None of this bodes particularly well for England. All we can hope is that skill, ability and attitude will win through.

Professor Mark Griffiths, psychologist, Nottingham Trent University

To speak to Mark, call the University Press Office directly on 0115 848 8785 or email worldcup@ntu.ac.uk

[To view Nottingham Trent University’s team of World Cup experts go to www.ntu.ac.uk/worldcup]

Football as a uniting force, by Professor Mark Griffiths

Last week, I was interviewed by BBC News Online about ‘the rise of the instant expert’, and how people who may not normally follow football suddenly have lots to say about the World Cup. Clearly, football is not a subject you need to have any academic qualifications to talk about, so it’s easy to be an expert – or at least appear to be one. In addition to this, the World Cup gives all of us a chance to get behind the national team and express our patriotism. In short, it’s a powerful unifying event both socially and psychologically.

Dr Alan Pringle from the University of Nottingham has carried out a lot of research on the positive benefits of watching football. He reports that watching football together strengthens bonds between family members, particularly between fathers and sons. He has written that many parents see football as an important part of their relationship with their children. Dr Pringle argues that watching football together as a family generates conversation and provides an opportunity for parents to spend ‘quality time’ with their children. Pringle goes as far to say that this quality time spent with parents during childhood often continues long after children have grown up and so allows a way of maintaining parent child relationships throughout life. Like me, Dr Pringle believes football can provide a platform to communicate with others, have a good gossip (which is known to facilitate mental well-being), exchange views, and bond through either winning or losing. Football is also a good social leveller that allows culturally diverse people to relate with one another (Source: Journal of the Royal Society of Health, 2004).

American psychologists at the University of Kansas carried out three studies showing that when your team does well, it can result in feelings of happiness, wellbeing, and collective euphoria. Their research showed that through association with a team’s success, fans ‘bask in reflected glory’ (BIRG). They speculated that BIRG-ing improves mood in both individuals and communities. They also argued that strong identification with a specific sports team provides a buffer from feelings of depression and alienation, and at the same time, fosters feelings of belongingness and self-worth. They also showed that under some circumstances, negativity can be a positive unifying force. For instance, sometimes fans may feel a sense of pessimism prior to a match.  However, the possibility that it can all go wrong for the team can be a uniting factor. In such cases, the researchers argued that a refusal to believe that things might go well may protect against disappointment as a result of failure. This is referred to as ‘cutting off reflected failure’ (CORF, as opposed to BIRG). Another way of forming a united bond is the ‘shared moaning’ after a defeat or poor performance (Source: Journal of Sport and Social Issues, 1991).

In another study, two Scottish medics reported that the World Cup has a positive effect on mental health – at least in the short-term. They found that around the time of the World Cup tournament, there was a significant reduction in numbers of emergency psychiatric admissions during and after the World Cup finals in both men and women. The study reported an increase in the numbers of schizophrenic and neurotic men accessing medical services before the World Cup. They speculated that these findings may be due to the enhancement of national identity and cohesion (Source: British Journal of Psychiatry, 1990).

Professor Mark Griffiths, psychologist, Nottingham Trent University

To speak to Mark, call the University Press Office directly on 0115 848 8785 or email worldcup@ntu.ac.uk

[To view Nottingham Trent University’s team of World Cup experts go to www.ntu.ac.uk/worldcup]

A prophet in your own land: Why it helps to be a foreign football manager, by Dr Stuart Jolly

Those with long memories will recall the fascinating fly on the wall documentary charting the progress of the then England manager Graham Taylor in the 1994 World Cup Campaign. In what might be described as a media naïve step, an all too open Graham Taylor allowed unfettered access to team meetings, match preparation and touchline outbursts. Memorable excerpts showed Taylor’s inability to cope effectively under the scrutiny of the national media, and portrayed a manager, who despite league success, was ill-equipped to deal with the demands of international management.

A succession of short term and caretaker English managers lead to the appointment of Sven-Goran Eriksson in 2001 as the first foreign England manager.

National stereotypes abound when it comes to talk of an English, vs a Continental type of football, and there is probably an underlying honeymoon period expectancy that the foreign manager is somehow exotic, innovative and full of technical flair in comparison to the stereotype of the physical English footballer and traditional manager. However, all too often the xenophobic aspects of the stereotype are used to deride the manager in the face of their failure to live up to press expectations, as was the case with Sven-Goran Erikkson.

Sven’s appointment was met with some consternation in the press at the time, but by 2007 the press treated the appointment of Fabio Capello with an air of inevitability, because of the lamented lack of English managers deemed to have the right qualities; since the Premier League began in 1992 it has not been won by an English Manager.

Yet an examination of current league managers shows that whilst only 5 of the 20 Premiership clubs have English managers, in the championship the figure is 14 out of 24 clubs and 18 of 24 clubs do in both league one and two.

Rather than there being a lack of suitable candidates, it may be that the increasingly wealthy owners of top flight clubs understandably look to appoint a foreign manager who can demonstrate an existing record of national league success at the highest level abroad. If this reduces the number of English managers at the top flight, the pool of successful English managers, who might be prospective international coaches is that much smaller.

One barrier to the development of home-grown talent, may be the small number of coaches qualified at the higher UEFA levels in comparison with other countries. Recent press coverage highlights that in England, there is only one UEFA qualified coach per 812 players, compared to a ratio of 1 per 17 players in Spain. Whilst no coaching badge alone can hope to create a manager overnight, they can help managers reflect on and frame their own skills and experience, and make more of their trials less error strewn, speeding their development. Another barrier to developing coaches may be the delay in the FA’s national football centre, St George’s park, at Burton on Trent which might provide a focus for efforts to develop English coaches.

The culture of English football may actually undermine the development of coaches, as it perpetuates a view that, the route to management is through playing experience at the highest level, and all too often coaches appear to undertake formalised education as a token gesture to appease the regulations. Whilst playing experience is invaluable, it can lead to the situation where a revered player can be appointed as a manager, with little or no management or coaching experience. Consider for example, the appointment of Gareth Southgate, or the possible response were Alan Shearer to throw his hat in the ring as a future Newcastle manager. In another corporate context, the idea of appointing a senior manager with no previous experience would seem ludicrous.

Whilst England doesn’t need an English manager, any focused attempts to develop English managers of the right quality is only likely to help develop more English players of international standard. The current resurrection of Steve McClaren’s managerial credentials via the Dutch title, to become the first English coach in the Bundesliga, shows that any prospective English international manager might currently be well advised to seek fame and fortune in a foreign league.

Dr Stuart Jolly

To speak to Stuart, call the University Press Office directly on 0115 848 8785 or email worldcup@ntu.ac.uk

[To view Nottingham Trent University’s team of World Cup experts go to www.ntu.ac.uk/worldcup]

Knowing England’s opponent: Algeria and a nation’s passion for football, by Dr Imad El-Anis

The modern history of Algeria is full of twists and turns, characterised by intense periods of change which have led to the strengthening of an Algerian national identity but also tragic set-backs and challenges.

Football, more than any other sport, has the potential to unite any nation and the World Cup finals always demonstrate just how much we can all pull together behind our team. For fans, passions run high and a sense of communal belonging is magnified. Algerians are as passionate about their football as any other nation taking part in this year’s World Cup, if not more so. This passion for football that is found across all sectors of Algerian society from rich to poor, city-dwellers to rural communities, the religious to secular, is rooted in the fight to emerge from a colonial history into the modern world as a unified and independent state. This has, unfortunately, not been a simple task for Algerians who since independence from France in 1962 have faced decades of military rule, a decade-long civil war in the 1990s and early 2000s and a slow move towards economic development and democracy.

After all of these challenges though, Algeria has begun to really make strides forward in its development. The petering off of the civil war in the early 2000s allowed a sense of normalcy to return to Algerian society and an atmosphere of ‘business as usual’ helped to attract greater investment from abroad, more visitors and a greater sense of confidence in the ability of Algerians to achieve a better future. The scars and divisions that the civil war left, however, have not been all that easy to heal and what is needed now is a deepening of a sense of nation-hood, common identity and common pursuits. And what better occasion is there for a nation to be united than the World Cup finals as their team competes for sporting glory on the world stage?

And glory is not too strong a word to use as far as Algerians are concerned. There is much optimism in Algeria’s future now. Even though the world has been through some tough times since the end of 2007, the global financial crisis and recession has not hit the Algerian economy as much as it has affected other countries. High prices for oil and gas on the global market since the early 2000s have helped to buoy Algeria’s economic development and encouraged greater foreign investment in Algeria. This steady economic development along with increasing domestic stability and cohesion has begun to give Algerians a new sense of confidence in their nation’s abilities. The qualifying rounds for the World Cup finals also helped to reinforce national pride as Algeria overcame the defending Africa Cup of Nations champions, Egypt in a three-game battle which ended with a 1-0 Algerian playoff victory. Although Egypt and Algeria share a long and close relationship dating back centuries, their modern experiences of colonialism and independence have led to a unique identity for both, and this is nowhere more obvious than in the sporting world where Algeria and Egypt have become classic rivals. Beating Egypt and qualifying for the finals was, therefore, a real coup for Algeria.

While we are all very optimistic and hopeful for England’s chances in this World Cup we should not underestimate the passion and the confidence that this Algerian team will bring to the competition. England’s group rivals will all be highly-motivated but perhaps none as much as an Algerian team which is the very symbol of their nation’s dreams for a better future.

Dr Imad El-Anis

To speak to Imad, call the University Press Office directly on 0115 848 8785 or email worldcup@ntu.ac.uk

[To view Nottingham Trent University’s team of World Cup experts go to www.ntu.ac.uk/worldcup]

Honduras and the 100 hours war, by Professor Lloyd Pettiford

Map of Honduras, where most of the fighting took place during the 'Football War'

I will be supporting England but in a reluctant, painful and obligated way.  However, I will also be following Honduras, for reasons both trivial and important.

International Relations: An overworked football cliché says the game is more important than life and death. In reality it is rarely even a matter of life and death, but in 1969 Honduras were involved in ‘The Football War’; this resulted in 3,000 deaths, mostly Honduran civilians. Also known as the 100 hours war, this conflict with El Salvador, took place after qualification matches for the World Cup (1970).

The name ‘Football War’ caught on largely because it provides a better headline than the real reason: ‘Years long disagreement over cross-border migration caused by differential population pressures, land availability and levels of state repression in two Central American countries turns into a short War’ doesn’t sound nearly so catchy!

Notwithstanding socio-economic and political roots of conflict, the fact that Honduras was involved in a football war fascinated me, especially because to the extent that there are ‘good guys’ in war, it was Honduras on this occasion.

Politics: Like others, Honduras is said to be ‘so far from God, so near the United States’; this ensures a political/economic system dominated by the rich few. For this reason, Central America can seem a very sad place at times. Honduras is one of the poorest nations in Latin America. Nonetheless, its people remain cheerful and resilient. After its political problems (and the costly loss of its best player before the tournament) Honduras is an underdog worthy of your support.

Football: I was alive when England won the World Cup but had to wait until I was 16 to see them play (Spain, 1982). I’ve forgotten the pain in Spain for Brooking, Keegan etc but how can I forget the efforts of Honduras that year!?  Against the hosts, they adopted a strategy of shoot from anywhere (including the kick-off) and almost pulled off the World Cup shock of all time.  They were robbed of victory by the most shameful of home team penalties (Alex Ferguson would have blushed had it been awarded to Manchester United at Old Trafford!). Furthermore, like the Conference South’s Bishops Stortford FC they play in dark blue and white stripes. They got to South Africa at the expense of Costa Rica (slayers of ‘mighty’ Scotland in 1990).

Personal/Trivial: I’ve been there twice and it’s great. The circus acrobat leaving Honduras for the first time who cheered me up on the bus from Tegucigalpa to Managua. Fito Alvarado who will never be an acrobat. Pyramids, forests and beautiful bay islands. The bar owner in Roatan who greeted everyone with the catch-phrase ‘I’m still alive’ (I wonder if he still is?). And all those prepared to drink ‘Salva Vida’ with me and listen to my often preposterous thoughts about el futbol!

Drawn again against Spain and with other fixtures against Switzerland and Chile, I tip them to go through with 4 points.